China-Belarus ties, particularly economic development, will likely remain on ice until relations with Belarus’s European neighbours are normalised. The Lukashenka regime is doubling down on its path of state repression. This foreshadows a continued deterioration of relations with the EU. Flagship Belarus-China projects (such as the Great Stone Industrial Park) rely on cross-border trade. Thus, while Chinese officials may offer words of support for the Lukashenka regime, the Belarus-China relationship will struggle to develop in an international climate of alarm and distrust.